War clouds are gathering in the Middle East

Growing fears of a major escalation as Iran prepares a military response to Israeli attacks

Within the next few days, the likelihood is that Iran and/or Hizbollah will launch a major attack on Israel.

It will be seen as an inevitable response to Israel’s murder last month of a senior Hizbollah commander in the Lebanese capital Beirut and then the murder of Hamas’s political leader Ismail Haniyeh in the Iranian capital Tehran.

The forthcoming Iranian counter-attack will almost certainly result in an Israeli counter-counter-attack, as it did last April, when Israeli action followed an Iranian missiles-and-drones attack on Israel, which followed an Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy in the Syrian capital, Damascus.

No wonder the region is holding its breath. The US is speeding up its deployment of military forces to the area and has even announced the deployment of a guided missile submarine. In Israel, the most recent reports suggest that an Iranian attack is expected before the end of this week, although there are said to be continuing disagreements in Tehran about what the scale of the attack should be.

In southern Lebanon, close to the border with Israel, an estimated 100,000 people have already been displaced as a result of hostilities between Hizbollah and Israel. On the Israeli side of the border, the figure is estimated at around 60,000.

Each strike and counter-strike increases the risk of a miscalculation resulting in a major escalation. Not since 1973 has the entire Middle East been engulfed in war; even when Iraq launched Scud missiles at Israel in 1991 following the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, the region somehow managed to contain the fall-out.

This time, the risks are far greater. Despite feverish diplomatic efforts aimed at convincing both Israel and Iran that a major conflict must be avoided at all costs, there are also powerful factors pushing in the opposite direction.

Among them is the Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu. He has long believed that Iran poses an existential threat to Israel’s survival — it’s one reason why he refuses any suggestion that he should agree to a ceasefire in Gaza until Iran-sponsored Hamas is totally defeated.

Ever since the Iran nuclear deal was signed in 2015 — a deal under which Iran agreed to dismantle much of its nuclear programme, but which Netanyahu never accepted — the Israeli prime minister’s over-riding aim has been to ensure that the US will do whatever needs to be done to ensure that Iran never becomes a nuclear-capable power. (Israel, of course, has had a highly-developed nuclear weapons programme for decades.)

Israel’s long-time friend Joe Biden could have been relied upon if the worst came to the worst. So could Netanyahu’s good friend Donald Trump (although if it were me, I would never dream of basing a national defence policy on an assumption of Trumpian loyalty).

But President Harris? Who knows how she would react in the event of a major escalation of hostilities in the region? Would she green-light an Israeli attack on Iran’s remaining nuclear installations? Or would she do what many on the progressive wing of US politics have been urging for several months, and threaten to halt military aid to Israel if it crosses a red line?

Israel’s position on the international stage is weaker now than it has been for many years. The Hamas attack last October has done exactly what its leaders wanted it to do: it has provoked an Israeli military response in Gaza that has shredded its international reputation and sorely tested the patience of its remaining allies. Hamas’s leaders — those who are still alive — seem to believe that the longer the Gaza war continues, the weaker Israel will become. The appalling suffering of the civilian population is, in their eyes, a price well worth paying.

Even with the continuing war in Ukraine, the drama of a US presidential election campaign and riots on the streets of British towns and cities, the appalling level of death and destruction being inflicted by Israeli forces in Gaza continues to demand our attention.

Renewed ceasefire talks are due in a couple of days’ time, although Hamas seems to be suggesting that its negotiators may not even turn up. A major Iranian attack would certainly stop them in their tracks. The death toll in Gaza would continue to rise, and the entire region would be one step closer to all-out war.