Thoughts on a dismal anniversary
What chance of peace in one of the least peaceful regions of the world?
You don’t need me to tell you what happened a year ago today. More than a thousand Israelis were killed in a Hamas attack across the border from the Gaza Strip.
Nor do you need me to tell you what has happened since then. Tens of thousands of Palestinians have been killed by retaliatory Israeli military action; more than a thousand Lebanese have been killed as Israel responded to Hizbollah rocket attacks across its northern border.
The leaders of both Hamas and Hizbollah have been killed; much of Gaza has been turned into rubble; so have parts of southern Lebanon and the southern suburbs of Beirut.
The scale of death and destruction defies the imagination. And what makes this anniversary so especially awful is that there is no sign of any of it coming to an end. If anything, the opposite is the case.
Yet one day the fighting will end. And there are broadly three ways in which that could happen, so let’s look at each of them in turn.
First, Israel could declare victory. It could say ‘We have achieved our objectives, Hamas and Hizbollah have been defeated, and their arsenals have been destroyed. From now on, the people of Israel can live in peace and security.’
Likelihood of this happening? Extremely slim.
Second, there could be a negotiated ceasefire leading to a more lasting peace settlement. The Israeli prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, could drop his long-standing opposition to the idea of an independent Palestinian state being established in the West Bank and Gaza Strip, existing side by side with Israel. (Alternatively, his coalition government could be replaced by one prepared to negotiate a ‘two-state solution.’) Hamas could accept explicitly that Israel has a right to exist as a Jewish state, and Iran’s leaders could do likewise.
Likelihood of this happening? Close to zero.
Third, neither of the above. Instead, the conflict continues, albeit at a much lower intensity, much as it has done over the past several decades. Israelis, Palestinians, and Lebanese all go back to living in a world of no-peace-no-war, never sure what the future holds or when they might have to flee for safety from incoming bombs and rockets.
Likelihood of this happening? High.
It is too easy to forget that sometimes wars do end in outright victory for one or other of the combatants. Both world wars, for example, 1914-1918 and 1939-1945, ended only after years of mass slaughter, and in the case of the Second World War, the use of two atomic bombs against Hiroshima and Nagasaki. In both wars, the defeated armies signed unconditional surrenders.
More recently, President Putin’s war against anti-Russian rebels in Chechnya lasted more than a decade (1999-2009) and, according to some estimates, cost the lives of some 60,000 people. An earlier war between 1994 and 1996 may have cost as many as 100,000 lives.
In Sri Lanka, a brutal civil war between 1983 and 2009 ended with the defeat of Tamil rebels after an estimated 80,000-100,000 deaths.
The two Gulf wars, in 1991 and 2003, both ended with the defeat of Iraq’s Saddam Hussein. In both wars, tens of thousands of people died.
Israel’s current leaders seem to think that ‘victory’ on their terms is achievable. They also plainly believe that the human cost in deaths and suffering is a price worth paying. Whether they are right or not does not depend on them alone.
Put at its simplest, Israel cannot continue its current level of military activity without continued support from the US. Similarly, Hizbollah cannot continue to fire thousands of rockets into Israel without continued support from Iran. Both sides need to replenish their stocks of missiles and anti-missile systems, and they also need to pay for them. Modern warfare does not come cheap.
Benjamin Netanyahu has long believed that the biggest threat to Israel’s long-term security is posed by the mullahs in Tehran. He has made it clear that his ambition is to see them overthrown and replaced by a more Israel-friendly, secular regime. (Before the Iranian revolution in 1979, Iran and Israel were on excellent terms.)
History suggests, however, that when external powers seek regime change, things do not always go according to plan.
A US-led coalition overthrew the Taliban in Afghanistan in 2002, after the 9/11 attacks by al-Qaeda, but now they are back in power, more brutal and more oppressive than before.
Saddam Hussein was overthrown in Iraq in 2003, but look at Iraq now. Deeply divided, with Iran playing a decisive role in its internal politics.
So here’s the key question on this dismal anniversary, as we wait for Israel’s response to last week’s Iranian missile attack. Is the Middle East heading for a reset that will at last bring peace to one of the world’s least peaceful regions?
Or is the conflict about to spread, with Iran and Israel in direct conflict, and their powerful allies (the US on one side, Russia on the other) sucked in to buttress what they see as their essential regional interests?
I wrote last week, before the Iranian missile attack, that the match was terrifyingly close to the tinder box. Seven days on, the match is even closer.